US Employment — official forecast scoreboard

We keep score. We do not play. Verification library — official forecasts versus held Numbers. Public evidence wedge, not the product hero. Correct / missed / open counts only. No hit-rate %.

Verification library hub · Topic page · Methodology v0.1

Fewer than 20 expired scorable claims are held, so this page does not publish a hit rate.

SEP, STEO, and other typed official forecasts

US Employment scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts by official. No hit-rate %.

CES payrolls previous print vs realized

Previous official print versus realized is shown when two held observations exist.

FOMC SEP

0 correct 0 missed 1 open

Open June 2025 SEP median unemployment rate for Q4 2025 is 4.5 percent. 2025-06-18 · target 4.5 · federalreserve.gov

STEO is scored only against EIA-878 retail gasoline and WPSR survey inventories, never against WTI or Brent price columns. A claim stays open when the horizon is unreached or the matching official outcome is not held — we do not invent a hit rate.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

federalreserve.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Open held official prints