Official forecast verification library

We keep score. We do not play. Verification library — official forecasts versus held Numbers. Public evidence wedge, not the product hero. Correct / missed / open counts only. No hit-rate %.

Public evidence wedge: official forecasts versus held prints. Browse by official below. Per-topic boards: US Interest Rates · US Inflation · US Employment · US Retail Gasoline and Inventories

Fewer than 20 expired scorable claims are held, so this page does not publish a hit rate.

Latest score news

No scored prints yet — the first release-day verdicts will appear here. Correct / missed counts only; no hit-rate %. See Methodology.

3

FOMC SEP

0 correct 0 missed 3 open

Scored against H.15 effective federal funds (fed-effr). SEP federal funds only — not PCE.

Open FOMC SEP scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

federalreserve.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

2

EIA STEO

0 correct 0 missed 2 open

Scored against EIA-878 retail gasoline. Never WTI or Brent.

Open EIA STEO scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Full claim source URLs stay on this face.

eia.govOpen source

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

0

BLS previous print

0 correct 0 missed 0 open

Naive prior-print baseline versus CPI / CES realized prints — not a BLS staff forecast.

Open BLS previous print scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

SCORING RECORD

Methodology v0.1 uses R1, R2, and R4. Flip back here for official claim URLs.

Read the scoring methodology · Full org scoreboard

via TrackRecord

Outlooks we hold, not yet scored

Typed holdings not yet settled against an official outcome. Each row is tagged by type (Outlook, Survey, Narrative) — surveys and narratives are not staff forecasts.

  • IMF WEO Outlook 11 open — not settled against an official outcome yet
  • OECD Economic Outlook Outlook 8 open — not settled against an official outcome yet
  • ECB SPF Survey 16 open — not settled against an official outcome yet
  • CBO Economic Outlook Outlook 10 open — not settled against an official outcome yet
  • NY Fed SCE Survey 3 open — not settled against an official outcome yet
  • BCB Focus Survey Not scored against an official outcome yet
  • USDA WASDE Outlook 1 open — not settled against an official outcome yet
  • GACC / SCIO official narrative Narrative 3 open — not settled against an official outcome yet
  • OMB MSR / Budget Outlook 2 open — not settled against an official outcome yet
  • OBR Forecast Evaluation Outlook 12 open — not settled against an official outcome yet
  • EC AMECO Outlook 12 open — not settled against an official outcome yet

Official forecasts versus held Numbers. A claim stays open when the horizon is unreached or the matching official outcome is not held — we do not invent a hit rate. STEO is scored only against EIA-878 retail gasoline and WPSR survey inventories, never against WTI or Brent price columns.