This week

SEP versus effective funds

FOMC year-end median federal funds versus the held H.15 effective federal funds rate. Official prints only.

FOMC SEP year-end median federal funds claims on this pack: 0 correct, 0 missed, 1 open as of . The latest held SEP median for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent (meeting ). Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections and H.15. Canonical: https://trackrecord.to/packs/sep-vs-reality. Not a hit rate. Not CME FedWatch. Not a FOMC forecast published by TrackRecord.

1

Correct, missed, and open

0 correct 0 missed 1 open

Correct, missed, and open counts. Not a hit rate. Methodology v0.1.

Unscored claims are not counted as misses. Horizon years after this calendar year stay in the officials list below, not in these three counts.

via TrackRecord

SEP medians versus effective funds

SEP year-end median at each meeting date (not a daily official print). Chart window: earliest SEP meeting through latest held H.15. Weekly last held print for the chart; daily prints stay on the series card.

  1. · year-end 2025 SEP median 3.9 percent · Open · December EFFR —

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections and H.15

FOMC SEP

Open the FOMC SEP scoreboard · Correct / missed / open counts. No hit-rate %.

FOMC SEP

0 correct 0 missed 1 open

  • Open June 2025 SEP median federal funds rate for year-end 2025 is 3.9 percent. · target 3.9 · federalreserve.gov

Data atoms

Permanent observation URLs and official claim sources.

  1. Open · year-end 2025 median 3.9% · meeting · Official SEP

Cite and embed

Paste the iframe on another website (height 220px). The parent page must reload to see a new print. via TrackRecord.

<iframe src="https://trackrecord.to/embed/v1/fed-effr" title="Effective federal funds via TrackRecord" loading="lazy" style="width:100%;height:220px;border:0"></iframe>

Embed on another website

FOMC SEP year-end 2025 median federal funds 3.9% (meeting 2025-06-18); H.15 effective federal funds —% as of —, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via TrackRecord.
FOMC SEP year-end 2025 median federal funds 3.9% (meeting 2025-06-18); H.15 effective federal funds —% as of —, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, via TrackRecord.
https://trackrecord.to/packs/sep-vs-reality

via TrackRecord